Sirianni Stands Firm on Game-Deciding Call Despite Fourth-Quarter Collapse
Nick Sirianni remains steadfast in his belief that he made the right call during the Philadelphia Eagles' narrow 22-21 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. The game, which saw the Eagles squandering a late lead, hinged on a pivotal play involving a dropped pass by Saquon Barkley and a subsequent controversial decision.
With the Eagles ahead 18-15 and holding possession at the Falcons' 13-yard line on a crucial third-and-3, Barkley dropped a pass that could have effectively ended the contest by allowing the Eagles to run out the clock. Instead, Sirianni opted to send out his field goal unit to extend the lead to 21-15 with 1:42 remaining.
Although this decision was backed by a 94% win probability before the field goal attempt, analytics show that their chances dropped to 85% post-kick, despite the score increase. The Eagles then kicked the ball into the end zone, giving the Falcons 1:40 to traverse 70 yards for a touchdown. The Falcons mounted a rapid response, covering 58 yards in just 43 seconds to enter the red zone.
With 38 seconds left on the clock, Kirk Cousins connected with Drake London for a touchdown, and Younghoe Koo’s extra point sealed an improbable 22-21 victory for Atlanta. This heartbreaking loss marks the Eagles' fourth meltdown in the final two minutes of a game since the start of the previous season, the highest figure in the NFL during that span.
Defending the Call
In a detailed post-game discussion, Sirianni elaborated on the thought process behind his decision. "What I did was I looked through the entire league and said to our analytics department, 'Could you give me every fourth-down decision when teams are in range with a four-minute offense?'" he explained. "So I asked for every time it was one point to five points when the team was up and every fourth down from the 34 and in."
He reflected on his experiences and studies which informed his call. "If you look at the history of that call, and I'm gonna try to drag myself through the mud as much as I possibly can. I've put myself in that situation prior to the call," Sirianni continued. "My conviction in the moment was I knew exactly what I wanted (to do). Is the outcome always what you want? No, but I was completely convicted there that the field goal was the right decision based off all my studies."
The Strategic Perspective
Sirianni also highlighted the psychological edge of forcing the opposition to chase a larger deficit. "There's a different stress being down six as opposed to three," he emphasized from his experience as an offensive coach.
In hindsight, even after the disappointing result, Sirianni remains confident in his decision-making process. "Now, I come back and evaluate it? And I'm even more convicted, to be quite honest with you. Because of everything that goes into that," he asserted.
Looking Forward
The Eagles' recent struggles in closing out games with a lead are concerning and have become a crucial area for the team to address as they aim to improve their late-game execution. Sirianni's commitment to his analytical approach suggests a belief that process-oriented thinking will eventually steer them toward better outcomes.
In a results-driven league, finding the balance between analytical probabilities and on-field execution remains an intricate puzzle. For Eagles fans, the hope is that Sirianni's conviction and meticulous approach will eventually pay off, transforming close defeats into hard-fought victories. But as the team continues to grapple with their late-game woes, questions about decision-making will inevitably linger.