The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face the Chicago Cubs this afternoon at Wrigley Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET. The Diamondbacks come into the game as slight money line favorites at -106.
Pitching Matchup: Steele vs. Nelson
The Cubs will have Justin Steele on the mound. Steele has been a reliable arm for the Cubs this season, making 14 starts and holding a 2-3 record with a commendable 2.71 ERA. Notably, Steele has delivered eight quality starts and in his most recent outing, he pitched seven scoreless innings. Despite the solid road ERA of 2.96, his performance at home sees a slight uptick with a 3.16 ERA.
For the Diamondbacks, Ryne Nelson will be taking the hill. Nelson’s season has been somewhat inconsistent, as reflected in his 6-6 record and a higher 4.99 ERA. His WHIP stands at 1.42 while opponents are batting .296 against him. However, Nelson has shown resilience, managing to string together six consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs.
Team Form and Standings
The Diamondbacks currently hold a 49-48 record, placing them second in the fiercely competitive NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. Arizona has been strong on the road lately, showcasing a 4-1 record in their last five away games while also going 4-1 on the run line in that span. The Diamondbacks bring a potent offense to the table, averaging five runs per game, which ranks as the second-best mark in the MLB. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been powerhouses for the team, hitting 22 and 19 homers, respectively.
Coming off a narrow 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays in a game where they initially led by seven runs, the Diamondbacks have still managed to bounce back with two consecutive road wins. Their overall run line record mirrors their win-loss tally at 49-48. This season, Arizona games have averaged 9.8 runs, contributing to an over/under record of 52-42.
In contrast, the Cubs have a 47-51 record and sit fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. However, recent form has been in their favor, with a 7-3 run over their last ten games and an impressive 4-1 record in their last five home games. Despite a subpar divisional record of 12-21, the Cubs have shown resilience as home underdogs, going 9-5 in such situations this year.
Key Players and Game Dynamics
Jameson Taillon was notable in a recent victory against the Cardinals, where he pitched 5 2/3 innings and allowed three earned runs in a comfortable 8-3 win. Offensively, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game with a team batting average of .235. Nico Hoerner has been in exceptional form, hitting .378 over his last nine games. Christopher Morel has also contributed, launching three homers in his last eight games.
The game’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. Both teams are on streaks where their games have surpassed this line in three straight outings. For Arizona, 84.5% of their games have exceeded the 7.5-run mark, and they hold a solid 6-4 record when this over/under line is set. The Cubs similarly see 67.3% of their games surpass the 7.5-run line, with a 12-10 record in such scenarios.
Projections anticipate Justin Steele to record six strikeouts against the Diamondbacks, while Ryne Nelson is expected to achieve four strikeouts. Steele is anticipated to allow fewer runs compared to Nelson, aligning with his overall consistency this season.
The matchup identifies itself as a competitive affair with the Diamondbacks narrowly projected to clinch a 5-4 victory. Both teams bring a mix of solid form and fluctuating dynamics as they look to edge each other out at Wrigley Field this afternoon.